VintageBrett.com

Charisma Always Wins

Obama's historic victory only confirms one thing: charisma, more than anything, determines election results. 

More than policies, more than character, more than track record, more than anything, charisma does a President make. Let's look at the evidence:

• In '08, Obama is no doubt more charismatic than McCain. 
• In 00' and '04, Bush, though somewhat dim-witted in perception, was still more charismatic than both Kerry and Gore (ironically, Gore became surprisingly charismatic AFTER he exited politics).  
• In '92 and '96, Clinton was more charismatic than both Dole and Bush.   
• In '88, Bush was more charismatic than Dukakis.   
• In '84 and '80, Reagan was more charismatic than Mondale and Carter.   
• In '76, Carter was more charismatic than Ford.   
• In '72, my understanding is both Nixon and McGovern were charismatic, but McGovern's ill-focused charisma might actually prove to be an anomaly.     

We could keep going, and I welcome you to chime in with your thoughts. The point here is simple: humans are affected more by perceptions and stories than anything. Obama tells a better story, and he tells it in a better way. 

FYI, here's an interesting and informative site on the history of Presidential Elections.  

A Presidential Rant

First, I don't see how anyone can think "their candidate" came out a winner tonight. Both Obama and McCain managed to sound, look and act anything but presidential. When they could have clarified how they were actually going to improve things, they only clarified how the other candidate was going to ruin America. When asked a direct question, they glazed over a direct answer and instead found a way to insert what they had already repeated 15 times in the prior 20 minutes. When asked repeatedly to follow the rules they'd agreed to, they continued to break them and then tattle on the other guy when he broke them. They even managed to piss off Tom Brokaw. 

Out of all the smart, experienced, qualified, proven, well-spoken, straight-talking people that could have made a run for it, how did we end up with these two? 

Second, can somebody please stop talking about "who won the debate?" The problem here is that campaigning has almost next to nothing to do with leading a country. But that's how we choose leaders. Whoever raises the most money, whoever runs the most ads, whoever favors the least polarizing positions, whoever knows how to debate best, whoever can spar and interview best gets to be President. 

Will either of these guys ever debate as President? No. They will be the audience of many debates, and they'll then have to be decisive, but they won't have to debate themselves. Sure, it's an impressive skill to have - that of debating well - but debates, at least in this case, shouldn't be about winning. They should be about communicating your position in a forum for the nation to see, and then the nation decides. 

Here are some things I'd like to know about each candidate that DOES have to do with being President:

• Who will be on your cabinet? 
• What will you do in your first 6 months in office?   
• What are your goals over your four-year term (and don't be subjective with me)?  
• How are you going to fix the economic problems and NOT tax us?   
• Since voting records seem to be so important, walk me through every vote you've cast over the past four years, and tell me why you voted the way you did.   

The cabinet and inner circle especially has a huge influence over a President's term. Refer to Donald Rumsfeld and Karl Rove. 

I've said before that I'll be voting for McCain, but I think Obama will win. That's probably still true, but, man, McCain makes it hard for me to vote for him. The only thing that he's got going for him is that every time I start to think that maybe Obama is the better choice for America right now between the two, my tongue swells up and I start to get that burning feeling of brewing vomit in the back of my throat. 

As for the issues themselves, here's my quick take on the biggies:

On the economy:

• America needs more money. Taxes are how America makes more money. I don't mind paying more taxes if it will fix the economy. So tell me you're going to tax me, and why. 
• The government is not going to fix our economy. In capitalism, capitalists create change. That means businesses, the private sector, is going to get creative in finding a way to fix this and also capitalize.   
• We need to confess we are way over our heads in debt, and acknowledge that debt = bad. Maybe Dave Ramsey needs to walk the White House through the Total Money Makeover.   
• We Americans are not the victims here. Yes, the government has been irresponsible, but so have we. I signed my mortgage. I use credit cards, and get car loans, and sign up for furniture that I can pay out for the next five years. Plus, we have all prospered during this time, too. Let's fess up and take a little ownership.   
• We, society, are going to have to sacrifice. You don't get out of a mess like this without getting dirty. Let's face it, acknowledge it, prepare for it and then dive in and get it over with.    

  On healthcare:

• It's definitely not a right, but it's more than just a privilege, too. 
• Shouldn't we start by cracking down on the pharmaceutical industry, making sure they are a) charging fair prices for their medicines, and b) making sure they make medicine that cures, not just covers up symptoms while prolonging the issue. Same attitude goes for hospital and doctor charges.   

On foreign policy:

•  I don't know . . . . I am scared of Russia, though.  

 

 
  

Palin = Bait

I 've been second-guessing McCain's VP choice for the past few days. After tonight's speech, I think he's made a pretty good decision.

But that's not the point of this post.

While it's clear Sarah Palin should appeal to several various demographics (women, special needs children, mom of a big family, etc.), it's hard not to wonder why she was chosen in spite of what will be a running controversial talking point in the campaign: her pregnant, unmarried teenage daughter.

If we admit that campaigns are games (and they are), it's easy to think the Republicans are counting on their VP candidate to be scrutinized. She is bait, dangled in front of the Democrats, with the hopes that, with such a savory piece of campaign meat hanging in front of them that they'll show their more carnal, more ravenous and dirtier side.

The Democrats aren't going to be able to hold back their judgments on Palin, and that's what's gonna hurt them.

McCain and Co., are counting on the attacks, tempting the Democrats into a nasty phase of mudslinging and namecalling. The problem is that those demographics that Palin appeals to are going to take up for her, or at least think it's unfair.

They're going to defend her ambition as a mother. They're going to understand her trials as a soon-to-be-grandmother in her mid-40's. They're going to sympathize with her interest in special needs children. And they're going to cave in to her charisma.

In an election where the middle 10% will determine everything, votes are often cast against candidates more than for them. The Republicans are hoping the Democrats will take the bait and show a side that most of the middle doesn't want to see, and definitely doesn't want to vote for.

What I Hate About Obama

What I hate about Obama is . . . . nothing.

No, I don't agree with him on lots of issues. Yes, I find it hard to distinguish any substance in what he says. But I can't move myself to despise him, even though my conservative evangelical white southern Republican spirit beckons me to do so.

Did you watch his speech last night? You can't deny that it was moving. You can't deny that Barack's ability to speak clearly, concisely and movingly is an extreme breath of fresh air compared to fumbling, stumbling, bumbling in the White House over the past eight years. As my wife put it last night, as far as presentation goes, Obama is someone you can be proud to have as a president.

I do have issues with parts of his plan. Is "tax cuts for 95% of the population" code for "we're gonna stick it the rich" (which, according to his answer at the Warren Forum, falls somewhere betwen $150k and $250k)? And while healthcare for everybody sounds great, how are we going to pay for it, and who's going to actually offer the insurance (I can't think insurance companies are eager to offer already-sick patients first rate coverage).

But, I've got issues with the whole system, like we all do, and I have no idea how you fix it.

Barring some unforeseen, drastic debauchle between now and November 4, John McCain will be getting my vote. I don't think he'll win, but I am more comfortable with him leading us at this point in time if forced to choose between the two.

But when Barack wins, it won't be the end of my world. I can't muster up enough reason to demonize him. He'll be OK. I might not be crazy about him, but I can't say that I hate him.

Latest Poll - McCain is Boring

A poll recently confirmed what has been blatantly obvious for at least the last six months: McCain is boring, and Obama gets people pumped up.

The article details a recent poll showing "that 38% of Obama's supporters say the election is exciting compared with 9% of McCain's."

I'm a reluctant McCain supporter that falls into the 91% that wouldn't consider the election exciting. At least not yet. And that's why I think Obama will actually end up winning. I can't bring myself to vote for Obama, but I'm not particularly thrilled to vote for McCain. I think a lot of people feel exactly the same as I do, and enough of that indifference is gonna lead to a low showing of McCain supporters at the polls in November.

Positive of Bad Economy = Less Mexicans

The Dallas Morning News posted this article, Mexicans leaving under duress, in Saturday's paper. It's an excellent read, and points out a possible benefit of the economy being down.

No, I'm not saying I want all the Mexicans to hit the road. I am saying that an economic setback has a way of taking care of issues that we otherwise didn't know how to take care of. Face it: America knows illegal immigration is a huge issue (before the economy took its huge dip, illegal immigration and the war were the two hot topics for the presidential hopefuls). The problem is that America has no idea how to solve it, and probably never will come up with a good way of solving it.